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Housing Bubble Busted !!!!!!!!!!
Housing Crashes !!!!!!!!
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Year 2002 : $300K
-----> Year 2005 : $600K ----->
Year 2010 : $200K
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**** The Housing Bubble Graph ****
**** The Houston Model ****
**** Excess Housing ****
Are you thinking this is what is going to happen?
You have come to the Right Place.
During the last housing downturn, the Housing Market Index fell
40 points from a peak of 60 in Dec 1988, bottommed out at 20 in
Jan 1991, over 25 months. In this downturn it has breached that
support level by falling to 18 in Oct 2007. It will continue to
head lower in the coming months.
How low will HMI go this time?
Per OFHEO's 2007-Q1 report, Detroit, Cleveland, Oakland, Reno,
Indianapolis, Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, Honolulu, West
Palm Beach, Boston, San Jose, Nassau, Santa Ana, Oakland, Naples,
Los Angeles, Denver, Fort Lauderdale, Riverside, Tampa, Kansas
City, Memphis, Fort Myers and Las Vegas were the major metros in a
list of 130, that posted HPI declines from the previous quarter.
Detroit/Warren, Sacramento, San Diego, Cleveland, Fort Myers,
Oakland, Naples, West Palm Beach, Sarasota and Boston/Cambridge
were the major metros in a list of 56 to post YOY declines.
Of the 381 MSAs covered in the report, Lafayette, IN was the
only MSA where home appreciation lagged inflation since 1995-Q1.
Per Census Bureau, In the Second Quarter of 2007, there were
127.7 Million Homes in the US. Of these, 17.3 Million were Vacant.
That is a whopping 13.6% of all US Homes were sitting empty. 12.6%
in the North East, 12.6% in Mid West, 15.7% in South and 11.7% in
the West.
Is this The Right Kind of Asset to own as Investment?
Most of these vacant homes will be put up for sale, once prices
start to come down. After all these are investments.
The number of New Homes for sale in all stages of construction
was 531K at the end of Aug 2007. But only 68K New Homes were sold
in that month.
The Median Price of New Home dropped to 225.7K in Aug 2007, from
243.9K in Aug 2006.
The number of completed new homes for sale stood at 175K in Aug
07. With an average price of 292K, that is 52.6 Billion Dollars
worth of inventory, Home Builders were carrying in that month.
Construction started on 119.2K New Homes in the same month.
What does this glut of New Homes mean?
Is the "demand" for housing different from "need" for housing?
Per NAR, the Number of Existing Homes for Resale stood at
4.19 Million in Jun 2007.
4/10/05 : Have Californians Gone Crazy?
6/13/05 : Will The 1992 So Cal Recession Be Repeated?
6/15/05 : SF Bay Area Mega Bubble Appreciation Rates
12/20/05 : Is Another Depression On its's Way?
12/23/05 : MSN Money - How much house for $300,000?
3/16/06 : Dollar Collapse - Housing History : Is it 1986 or 1929?
4/26/06 : Stock Performance - Home Builders Mortgage REITs Banks
6/18/06 : Smith - What Happens When Housing Employment Plummets?
7/3/06 : Asset Deflation, Goods Inflation
7/24/06 : Will Builders Lead The Prices Down?
8/7/06 : ACS - Housing Vacancy Rates
8/25/06 : UHaul Index - California North East Mid West Florida
9/4/06 : Internal Migration
9/5/06 : Jas Jain - Peak Debt
10/5/06 : FDIC - Breaking New Ground in U.S. Mortgage Lending
1/8/07 : How Many Realtors Do We Need?
1/10/07 : Inflation Or Deflation Ahead?
1/12/07 : Owner Occupancy Rates
1/24/07 : Census Bureau - Construction Spending Home Improvement
2/15/07 : What Happens In Vegas, (Not Always) Stays In Vegas
3/6/07 : Census Bureau - Completed Unsold New Homes
3/26/07 : New Homes - Lot Size Home Size Price Per Sq. Foot
4/11/07 : "Realtor Free" Real Estate
4/16/07 : Bursting Of Housing Bubble Will Bring The Modern 1930s
5/21/07 : New Housing By Purpose - Starts Completions
10/12/07 : The Wall Street Journal - Subprime Tidal Wave
Finally...
3/23/07 : .... And Two Years Later The Bubble Has Busted
12/5/07 : Ian Gordon - This Is It! (PDF File)
2/6/08 : George Soros - Worst Crisis In 60 Years I Got It Wrong
New...
2/7/08 : Foreclosures leave renters in the lurch
2/10/08 : Recession threat makes many more cautious
Also Visit : Paper Money Dollar Collapse iTulip Shadow Stats
Now & Futures Interest Rate Roundup Big Picture Mish's Blog
Roubini's Blog Housing Panic KWaves Calculated Risk Van Eeden
Bubble News : The Bubble Times eFinance Patrick.net
Per Census Bureau, between 2000 and 2006 San Francisco Bay Area
added 116K new residents, while 128K new housing units were built.
Greater Boston area added only 53K new residents but 58K new
housing units were built in the same period.
Send comments/suggestions to somesh@housingbubblebust.com
Real Estate Heat Maps For Cities : Zillow.com
Resale Inventory By Markets : Housing Tracker Paper Dinero
UK's Housing Bubble : HousePriceCrashUK.com
Richard Freeman : U.S. Real Estate Bubble Nears Its End (PDF)
View and upload housing bubble pics at BubblePic.Com
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About Me
Name : Somesh Gaur
From : San Francisco
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