San Francisco Bay Area
Megabubble Appreciation Rates
                                                                   
                                                                      Created : June 15, 2005
       << Back Home                                    *** Last Updated : May 24, 2008

Data Obtained from Office Of The Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

To see how a $100 investment in a Bay Area Home in 1980, 
has grown over the years, Click Here.

Year
Qtr
San Francisco
San Mateo
San Jose
Santa Clara
Oakland 
Fremont
Quarterly
Inflation





1981
1
7.06
13.93
12.59
11.24

1981
2
5.54
13.42
9.77
9.77

1981
3
1.5
10.94
8.83
10.83

1981
4
1.0
8.87
7.34
9.55

1982
1
-0.98
2.9
2.97
7.59

1982
2
-1.13
-1.05
1.59
6.75

1982
3
2.71
-1.0
0.81
5.77

1982
4
0.2
-2.52
-2.14
4.51

1983
1
8.35
1.98
1.95
3.59

1983
2
8.02
3.3
2
3.34

1983
3
4.68
1.96
1.57
2.62

1983
4
7.06
3.74
4.65
3.3

1984
1
2.71
4.46
2.53
4.53

1984
2
3.76
4.96
2.83
4.33

1984
3
4.26
6.25
3.9
4.25

1984
4
5.6
7.37
4.21
4.08

1985
1
6.71
6.93
6.12
3.58

1985
2
6.4
8.09
6.27
3.74

1985
3
8.27
8.44
7.49
3.34

1985
4
9.75
7.8
6.97
3.51





Year
Qtr
San Francisco
San Mateo
San Jose
Santa Clara
Oakland 
Fremont
Quarterly
Inflation

1986
1
9.02
7.76
6.14
3.08

1986
2
9.94
6.62
7.64
1.61

1986
3
10.57
7
7.2
1.63

1986
4
12.15
7.49
8.28
1.28

1987
1
14.54
7.75
9.18
2.19

1987
2
14.93
8.56
9.46
3.76

1987
3
16.82
9.29
9.85
4.19

1987
4
17.96
10.12
9.53
4.49

1988
1
19.85
12.19
10.52
3.97

1988
2
22.66
15.6
12.16
3.91

1988
3
23.31
19.87
13.59
4.1

1988
4
25.62
25.53
16.88
4.3

1989
1
23.57
29.65
18.6
4.82

1989
2
23.88
32.78
21.68
5.21

1989
3
22.52
33.09
24.32
4.67

1989
4
16.44
25.71
22.14
4.59

1990
1
13.22
16.7
18.6
5.23

1990
2
6.18
6.57
11.64
4.58

1990
3
1.18
-1.58
5.17
5.53

1990
4
-2.79
-5.88
1.18
6.22

Year
Qtr
San Francisco
San Mateo
San Jose
Santa Clara
Oakland 
Fremont
Quarterly
Inflation



1991
1
-4.99
-6.22
-1.47
5.28

1991
2
-5.07
-5.19
-2.42
4.84

1991
3
-4.88
-3.6
-2.45
3.87

1991
4
-1.69
-1.03
-0.71
2.99

1992
1
-0.92
-0.78
-0.37
2.86

1992
2
-1.02
-1
-0.09
3.09

1992
3
-0.85
-1.42
-0.09
3.1

1992
4
-2.27
-1.8
-1.3
3.05

1993
1
-2.63
-2.31
-1.74
3.19

1993
2
-2.37
-2.25
-1.62
3.15

1993
3
-2.73
-2.74
-2.27
2.74

1993
4
-2.11
-2.77
-2.12
2.72

1994
1
-1.36
-2.15
-1.75
2.51

1994
2
-1.61
-2.24
-2.9
2.37

1994
3
-1.96
-2.09
-3.57
2.87

1994
4
-2.91
-1.59
-4.67
2.65

1995
1
-1.41
-1.09
-4.03
2.83

1995
2
-0.17
0.85
-1.59
3.09

1995
3
1.13
1.95
-0.23
2.63

1995
4
1.93
2.43
1.09
2.65


Year
Qtr
San Francisco
San Mateo
San Jose
Santa Clara
Oakland 
Fremont
Quarterly
Inflation

1996
1
0.88
3.07
1.59
2.74

1996
2
0.5
3.17
-0.48
2.84

1996
3
0.8
4.19
-0.87
2.94

1996
4
2.2
5.23
-0.41
3.18

1997
1
3.88
7.55
0.21
2.94

1997
2
6.7
10.83
3.09
2.34

1997
3
8.7
12.01
5.57
2.2

1997
4
9.94
13.26
7.53
1.87

1998
1
10.82
13.67
8.73
1.46

1998
2
11.39
13.33
9.82
1.6

1998
3
12.23
14.35
10.36
1.59

1998
4
11.33
13.09
9.94
1.54

1999
1
11.13
11.11
9.95
1.66

1999
2
11.78
9.94
9.97
2.1

1999
3
12.86
11.06
11.36
2.34

1999
4
16.63
13.62
13.21
2.61

2000
1
20.77
21.59
17.64
3.24

2000
2
24.0
26.94
21.17
3.33

2000
3
23.85
28.16
22.04
3.5

2000
4
21.94
28.77
22.86
3.43

Note : Annual Rate Of Inflation for 1980 is 13.58%, 1981 is 10.35%. That would explain
       the double digit appreciation rates in 1981.

Year
Qtr
San Francisco
San Mateo
San Jose
Santa Clara
Oakland 
Fremont
Inflation



2001
1
19.1
23.15
21.08
3.39

2001
2
13.78
16.74
18.18
3.37

2001
3
9.56
8.44
14.58
2.69

2001
4
5.03
1.01
10.18
1.86

2002
1
2.82
-2.47
7.33
1.25

2002
2
3.32
-1.96
6.66
1.29

2002
3
5.0
1.34
7.4
1.58

2002
4
7.06
5.19
9.73
2.2

2003
1
6.63
5.14
9.25
2.86

2003
2
4.66
2.32
6.85
2.12

2003
3
3.28
0.84
6.17
2.19

2003
4
5.69
1.99
8.52
1.89

2004
1
6.16
3.34
8.12
1.78

2004
2
10.0
7.46
12.9
2.86

2004
3
15.98
14.3
20.1
2.72

2004
4
15.39
14.38
18
3.32

2005
1
18.19
18.18
22.1
3.04

2005
2
19.65
21.54
23.65
2.94

2005
3
15.83
18.42
20.03
3.83

2005
4
17.0
20.76
21.84
3.74

Year
Qtr
San Francisco
San Mateo
San Jose
Santa Clara
Oakland 
Fremont
Inflation

2006
1
14.85
16.67
18.25
3.65

2006
2
9.42
11.22
11.97
4.01

2006
3
7.22
8.58
6.47
3.34

2006
4
2.06
4.19
1.71
1.94

2007
1
1.32
2.27
-0.9
2.43

2007
2
-0.15
1.04
-3.6
2.65

2007
3
1.29
-0.96
-6.4
2.36

2007
4
-1.21
-2.49
-7.89
3.98

2008
1
-3.25
-3.59
-9.86
3.98

2008
2
?
?
?
?
2008
3
?
?
?
?
2008
4
?
?
?
?

2009
1
?
?
?
?
2009
2
?
?
?
?
2009
3
?
?
?
?
2009
4
?
?
?
?

2010
1
?
?
?
?
2010
2
?
?
?
?
2010
3
?
?
?
?
2010
4
?
?
?
?

  San Francisco Chronicle - Neighborhood Homes Sold

 Color Coding : 

 New Business Cycle, Appreciation 
 Equals Inflation. 

 Appreciation Greater Than Inflation,
 under 10%. Foundation of The Bubble. 

 Runaway Appreciation. Creation of The Bubble,
 between 10% and 20%. 

 Bubble's Peak, over 20%. 

 Market Stalling, Plateau,
 Year-Over-Year Appreciation Stops. 

 Year-Over-Year Appreciation approaches 0%. 

 Bubble Busted, Recession, -ve appreciation.  

 Recovery, +ve appreciation again.

 Small Decline.

 New Business Cycle, Appreciation 
 Equals Inflation.  
 [ Or is it? It seems more like an extension 
 of the Current Business Cycle. Like the Last
 Cycle, prices should have dropped in the Red.
 But thanks to low interest rates, speculators 
 and investors. A Bubble starts turning into
 a Mega Bubble.]

 Foundation of The Mega Bubble,
 upto 10%. 

 Creation of The Mega Bubble, 
 between 10% and 15%. 

 Mega Bubble's Peak, Over 15%.

 Compare this with Southern California's
 Business Cycles :

    Southern California : The 1992 Recession        

           ______________________________________________________________________________

             Copyright © 2005 by Author. This material may be distributed only subject
             to the terms and conditions set forth in the Open Publication License.